tetlock philip гарднер дэн superforecasting the art and science of prediction
Tetlock Philip, Гарднер Дэн Superforecasting. The Art and Science of Prediction
What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.
4034 Руб.
Lindsay David A Voyage to Arcturus
A classic of intergalactic, metaphysical science fiction and one of Philip Pullman's favourite books After journeying across the stars, a man from Earth finds himself lost among the scarlet deserts, black cliffs and semi-sentient oceans of Tormance, a world lit by the star Arcturus. Pulled northward by the sound of drums, and undergoing strange physical transformations, the Earthman's adventures with the planet's inhabitants begin to shine with arcane significance - ending finally in startling and unforgettable revelations. At once an extraordinary odyssey across a bizarre alien world, a visceral exploration of human thought and behaviour, and a unique metaphysical examination of the cosmos, David Lindsay's masterpiece is a pioneering work of science fiction that has influenced generations of writers, including C.S Lewis, J.R.R. Tolkien and Philip Pullman.
2346 Руб.
Carrere Emmanuel I Am Alive and You are Dead. A Journey Inside the Mind of Philip K. Dick
An unforgettable biography of the visionary grand master of science fiction, Philip K. Dick Emmanuel Carrere follows Dick's strange odyssey from his traumatic beginnings in 1928, when his twin sister died in infancy, to his lonely end in 1982, beset by mystical visions of swirling pink light, three-eyed invaders and messages from the Roman Empire. Drawing on interviews and both published and unpublished sources, Carrere traces Dick's multiple marriages, paranoid fantasies and dizzying encounters with the drug culture of California. As disturbing and engrossing as any novel by Philip K. Dick himself, Carrere's unconventional study interweaves life and art to reveal the maddening genius whose writing foresaw - from cloning to reality TV - a world that looks ever more like one of his inventions.
4029 Руб.
Dick Philip K. A Maze of Death
When 14 people arrive to colonize the otherwise uninhabited planet of Delmark-O, they quickly discover that their bizarre new world is more dangerous-and much, much stranger-than they ever could have imagined, in this 1970 novel by Philip K. Dick. The colonists have nothing in common, and no idea why they've been sent there. All they know is that there's no way to leave, and one by one they are being killed. A visionary, Hugo Award-winning author, Philip K. Dick was inducted posthumously into the Science Fiction Hall of Fame. His stories have been made into such blockbuster films as Blade Runner, Total Recall, and Minority Report, and he was the first science fiction writer to be included in the Library of America series.
921 Руб.
Hook Philip Breakfast At Sotheby's
Comic, revealing, piquant, splendid and absurd, Breakfast at Sotheby's is a book of pleasure and intelligent observation. Breakfast at Sotheby's is a wry, intimate, truly revealing exploration of how art acquires its financial value, from Philip Hook, a senior director at Sotheby's 'Reading it is like participating in a hugely enjoyable personal tutorial given by a cultured, witty, clear-eyed, world teacher with a fully functioning sense of humour. A real delight' - Spectator 'Hook's view of the art world is that of the professional auctioneer. In an A-Z format, it is an entire art education contained in under 350 pages. Wry, dry and completely beguiling' - William Boyd, Guardian, Books of the Year 'How to nail the mad, bad, crazy contemporary art world in print? Sotheby's senior director Hook draws on 35 years' experience in this informal memoir. He unravels, with humour, piquancy and erudition, what drives the economics of taste' - Financial Times, Books of the Year 'It's very hard to write an amusing book about art that has some serious things to say. But Philip Hook has done it' - Sunday Times, Books of the Year 'An auctioneer's alphabet of quirky reflections and off-beat lists such as 'middle-brow artists' and 'fictional artists': an ideal volume for the art-lover's bedside' - Martin Gayford, Spectator, Books of the Year 'His delightful Breakfast at Sotheby's is a house sale of a book, a chance for him to clear out 35 years of memories as an art dealer and auctioneer, first at Christie's and then Sotheby's, a rival auction house' - Economist Philip Hook is a director and senior paintings specialist at Sotheby's. He has worked in the art world for thirty-five years during which time he has also been a director of Christie's and an international art dealer. He is the author of five novels and two works of art history, including The Ultimate Trophy, a history of the Impressionist Painting. Hook has appeared regularly on television, from 1978-2003 on the BBC's Antiques Roadshow.
3673 Руб.
Pratchett Terry Science of Discworld II. The Globe
Acclaimed The Science of Discworld centred around an original Pratchett story about the wizards of Discworld. In it they accidentally witnessed the creation and evolution of our universe, a plot which was interleaved with a Cohen & Stewart non-fiction narrative about Big Science. In The Science of Discworld II: The Globe our authors join forces again to see just what happens when the wizards meddle with history in a battle against the elves for the future of humanity on Earth. London is replaced by a dozy Neanderthal village. The Renaissance is given a push. The role of fat women in art is developed. And one very famous playwright gets born and writes The Play. Weaving together a fast-paced Discworld novelette with cutting-edge scientific commentary on the evolution and development of the human mind, culture, language, art, and science, The Globe presents a fascinating and brilliantly original view of the world we live in. The scene of the final epic battle is the first production of A Midsummer's Night Dream at the Globe Theatre.
1849 Руб.
Burke Lisa Science Squad
The zany characters of the Science Squad will guide kids ages 5-7 through this engaging, fact-packed book from Robert Winston all about the key STEAM subjects: science, technology, engineering, art, and maths. This bright and cheery illustrated book for kids ages 5-7 breaks down STEAM subjects, like science and technology, into fun and easily understandable chunks. Join Robert Winston and the Science Squad to unravel the mysteries of the world: find out how robots work, what a food chain is, where lightning comes from, how lungs allow you to breathe, and much more. The Science Squad characters (Science, Technology, Engineering, Art, and Maths) guide the reader through the book and are always on hand with tips, fun facts, and simple explanations. With pages covering living things, the human body, space, physics, geography, math, engineering, and chemistry, this book is a perfect introduction for kids starting to learn about science at school, or those who are just developing an interest in how the world works.
2382 Руб.
Heron-Allen E. Violin-making: as it was and is, being a historical, theoretical, and practical treatise on the science and art of violin-making, for the use of violin makers and players, amateur and professional
Violin-making: as it was and is, being a historical, theoretical, and practical treatise on the science and art of violin-making, for the use of violin makers and players, amateur and professional
1194 Руб.
Heron-Allen E. Violin-making: as it was and is, being a historical, theoretical, and practical treatise on the science and art of violin-making, for the use of violin makers and players, amateur and professional
Violin-making: as it was and is, being a historical, theoretical, and practical treatise on the science and art of violin-making, for the use of violin makers and players, amateur and professional
1194 Руб.
Dollo Xavier The History of Science Fiction. A Graphic Novel Adventure
Journey through time and space with this graphic novel history of the science fiction genre, from Jules Verne, Jonathan Swift, and Mary Shelley to William Gibson and Philip K. Dick to Ken Liu and Ted Chiang, and beyond. Trace the progress of SF through modern times and learn why key figures and inventors like Thomas Edison have looked to science fiction to predict the future. For the first time in illustrated form, this comprehensive history of science fiction traces its origins and, in fascinating detail, charts its history from its beginnings as a "schlock" genre to its respected status today. Join author/historian Xavier Dollo and artist Djibril Morissette-Phan (All-New Wolverine, X-Men: Gold, Star-Lord) in their visual journey into the expansive universe of science fiction. Who is considered the world's first science fiction author? How did American science fiction begin? What sci-fi novel is the alltime best-seller? What were the "Pulps" and how did they predict with uncanny accuracy the 21st century world around us? The answers are here, along with detailed chapters dedicated to the founders of the genre and their modern-day successors. Discover the origins of your favorite page-to-screen science fiction movies. Marvel at the behind-the-scenes stories of some of literature's most imaginative writers. Find out why science fiction so effortlessly captures our imaginations and makes us dream of new worlds. Far more than just a list of facts, The History of Science Fiction is a roaring analytical reflection on the genre that continues to shape our world, presented in a stunning 8" x 11" hardcover sure to stand out on any bookshelf or serve as the coffee-table conversation starter for all things sci-fi!
4932 Руб.
Dick Philip K. We Can Remember It For You Wholesale
The final volume in the definitive collection of stories by the greatest science fiction writer of the twentieth century The fifth and final part of the complete collected stories shows Philip K. Dick at the very height of his outstanding powers. The twenty-five tales were written between 1963 and 1981, just a few months before he died, and include two stories which have been turned into box office smashes: the title story, filmed as Total Recall, and "The Little Black Box", which grew into his masterpiece Blade Runner.
3814 Руб.
Ursprung Philip Studio Olafur Eliasson
The experimental art of Olafur Eliasson. Studio Olafur Eliasson is an experimental laboratory located in Berlin. Led by renowned Danish-Icelandic artist Olafur Eliasson, it functions as an interdisciplinary space, generating fresh dialogues between art and its surroundings. This rich sourcebook enables the reader to delve into the corners and crevices of the Studio’s diverse projects. The key concepts behind the works are presented alphabetically, and unfold in the course of short conversations with the artist. The majority of Eliasson’s thought-provoking installations, photographs, sculptures, and architectural projects to date is included, with additional material focusing on the research processes at Studio Olafur Eliasson. The introduction is provided by the noted art historian Philip Ursprung, who also participates in the conversations. Also available as Collector's Edition, numbered and signed by the artist. About the artist: Olafur Eliasson, born 1967 in Copenhagen, of Icelandic parentage, studied at The Royal Danish Academy of Fine Arts, Copenhagen, from 1989 to 1995. Early in his career he moved to Germany, establishing Studio Olafur Eliasson in Berlin. Internationally acclaimed, Eliasson lives and works in Copenhagen and Berlin. About the author: Philip Ursprung is professor of modern and contemporary art at the University of Zurich. He is the editor of Herzog & de Meuron: Natural History, author of Grenzen der Kunst: Allan Kaprow und das Happening, Robert Smithson und die Land Art, and also works as a curator. Издание на английском, французском и немецком языках.
11681 Руб.
How Art Works. The Concepts Visually Explained
What goes into creating art? How can we learn to "read" paintings? What are the key elements of composition? If you've ever found yourself seeking the answers to the above questions and more, then this may be the book for you! An art book like no other, How Art Works uses practical graphics to demonstrate the techniques, styles, materials, and concepts that lie behind great art. It shows you how to interpret paintings, drawings, and sculptures, and reveals how art is made, laying out the key techniques and materials in visual detail. It also explains the nuts and bolts of the technical aspects behind art, such as perspective and composition, and shows how to identify major artistic styles and movements. This awe-inspiring art history book features: - Oil and watercolour painting, drawing, ceramics, sculpture, and more - Explains the technical aspects of visual arts including perspective, light, colour, form, and texture - A selection of major art movements such as Impressionism, Cubism, Surrealism and more - Shows how information, messages, and emotion can be conveyed through art - Highlights key inventions and developments Providing all you need to know to build on your artistic understanding and appreciation, this is the perfect book for art lovers of all kinds, whether you're an art student, or you're simply a lover of visual art and are looking to discover more about art but aren't sure where to begin. At DK, we believe in the power of discovery. So why stop there? How Art Works is part of DK's widely successful How Stuff Works series. Discover the inner workings of the mind with How the Brain Works, succeed in all things science with How Science Works and discover the cosmos like you've never known before with How Space Works. Whatever topic sparks your interests, there's a plethora of knowledge to discover!
3032 Руб.
Simmons D. The Fall of Hyperion
"State of the art science fiction . . . a landmark novel."-Isaac Asimovs Science Fiction Magazine Now, in the stunning continuation of the epic adventure begun in Hyperion, Simmons returns us to a far future resplendent with drama and invention. On the world of Hyperion, the mysterious Time Tombs are opening. And the secrets they contain mean that nothing-nothing anywhere in the universe-will ever be the same. Praise for The Fall of Hyperion "One of the finest SF novels published in the past few years."-Science Fiction Eye "A magnificently original blend of themes and styles."-The Denver Post
449 Руб.
Simmons D. The Fall of Hyperion
"State of the art science fiction . . . a landmark novel."-Isaac Asimovs Science Fiction Magazine Now, in the stunning continuation of the epic adventure begun in Hyperion, Simmons returns us to a far future resplendent with drama and invention. On the world of Hyperion, the mysterious Time Tombs are opening. And the secrets they contain mean that nothing-nothing anywhere in the universe-will ever be the same. Praise for The Fall of Hyperion "One of the finest SF novels published in the past few years."-Science Fiction Eye "A magnificently original blend of themes and styles."-The Denver Post
449 Руб.
The Best of World SF. Volume 2
Twenty-nine new short stories representing the state of the art in international science fiction. The second annual instalment to the 'rare and wonderful' (The Times) The Best of World SF Volume 1, this collection of twenty-nine stories, including eight original and exclusive additions, represents the state of the art in international science fiction. Navigating around the globe, The Best of World SF Volume 2 features writers from Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Bolivia, Brazil, China, Czech Republic, Greece, Grenada, India, Iraq, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, The Philippines, Poland, Russia, Singapore, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Each story has been selected by World SF expert and award-winning author Lavie Tidhar. Taking us into space – Mars at first, then the stars – and then back to a strange, transformed Earth via AI, gods, aliens and the undead, the collection traces the ever-changing meaning of the genre from some of the most exciting voices writing today. This is not a retrospective of what science fiction around the world used to look like. This is a snapshot of what some of it looks like now. And it's never been more exciting.
2773 Руб.